Umbrasyl Predictions

openthepocketwatch asked: Sorry if you're already answering this, but based on the state/location of both the party and Umbracil, how many rounds would it take to take down Umbracil at this point if a) Grog Vax and Scanlan or b) the whole party did their average amount of damage during a round? I'm wondering how long Vax and Scanlan can survive in there before Umbracil is taken down.

No worries, we’re answering it now! Note that many of these assumptions, while we think they are reasonable, will probably wind up being completely different from what actually happens in episode 55. Vox Machina, Matt, and the dice always manage to surprise us.

General Assumptions:

  • Average damages per hit from this sheet. Note that Grog’s current average damage may be slightly higher than this- there have not been enough uses of the Titanstone Knuckles (or Enlarge) to increase his average over all episodes yet.
  • Our estimated HP for Umbrasyl of 1156. This estimate came by multiplying the average ancient HP of an ancient black dragon (367) by 3.15. This number came by dividing Rimefang’s health total of 630 by the average adult white dragon HP (200).
  • Umbrasyl makes it back to the lair, resulting in a time delay that allows both Grog’s rage and Vex’s Boots of Haste to wear off.
  • Matt keeps the initiative order from the first half of the battle (only matters for finding the killing blow).
  • Grog uses his second Frenzied Rage of the day (giving him 3 attacks per round).
  • Vax always uses his bonus action for an offhand attack.
  • Percy reloads at the pistol’s rate (since Bad News is currently broken).
  • Vex leaves Trinket in the necklace and uses both of her attacks per round.
  • Keyleth, Scanlan, and Pike all hit once per round.
  • No one misses a turn due to being unconscious, dead, or out of range.

If we don’t take missed attacks into account:

  • If Vax, Grog, and Scanlan are forced to face Umbrasyl on their own, Grog kills him at the top of the 5th round.
  • If somehow the rest of the party manages to catch up, Vex kills Umbrasyl at the top of the 3rd round.

If we assume a hit rate similar to the first half of the battle:

  • If Vax, Grog, and Scanlan are forced to face Umbrasyl on their own, Grog kills him at the top of the 6th round.
  • If somehow the rest of the party manages to catch up, Umbrasyl still dies in the 3rd round, but Vax gets the killing blow instead of his sister.

Update: Anonymous submitted, “In a grand upset, Scanlan gets the killing blow on Umbrasyl using Vicious Mockery.” Heeheeheehee.