anonymous asks: What were the rolls that Wil Wheaton made during his time as guest player, and what is the statistical unlikeliness of those rolls? Please also account for times when he rolled a 19 when desiring to roll low.
Given that Wil rolled a d20 54 times over the course of both appearances in the Trial of the Take, we would expect for the frequency of each roll to look similar to this chart, with minor variations (5% of the time):
Now, we do have the problem of having a very small sample size of 54 rolls for computing “statistical unlikeliness” (minimum acceptable would be about 1000 rolls). The difference between once and ten times rolled is HUGE when almost all rolls are in the single digits. If we were to boost the trials to 540 rolls, even with Wil’s luck, it’s unlikely he’d have 100 Nat1s and 10 Nat20s. This is the assumption we make with the data we have, in which a single roll can make a world of difference.
But, let’s just assume that this is a perfect representation of how Wil always rolls. Natural 1s made up 18.518% of Wil’s rolls, with a deviation of 73.37% from the expected number of times rolled. It should be noted that rolling any number only once (which is very reasonable for any number to be rolled with 54 total) has a 62.963% deviation. We also calculated the standard deviation, comparing scarily perfect dice to Wheaton’s dice. Again, not very relevant based on such a small sample size, but, hey, if you’re into it, knock yourself out.