Crits of Episode 61-Denizens of the Moonbrush

Since this week’s episode tied Episode 55 for the highest number of Natural 20s at 14, and set the record for Natural 1s at 10, we decided to give the critical hits & failures their own post. When you take into account the number of d20 rolls (157), Vox Machina rolled a Natural 20 about 8.92% of the time, and a Natural 1 around 6.37% of the time. These are also both records.

So no, it wasn’t just your imagination or an effect of rolling more times overall. There were a lot of crits in this episode (by statistics, you’d expect a rate of 5%, or 7-8 rolls for each case).

For the record, for the first 60 episodes, Percy has the highest overall Natural 20 rate of Vox Machina, and his is only 6.9%. Trinket has the highest Natural 1 rate at 5.21%.

Natural 20s: 

  1. Grog (0:19:44) Decide whether to go into the cave
  2. Scanlan (0:30:15) Intelligence Check with disadvantage (disregarded)
  3. Vex’ahlia (0:36:38) Survival Check
  4. Percy (0:59:50) Intelligence Check
  5. Scanlan (1:01:16) Wisdom Save
  6. Scanlan (1:01:24) Wisdom Save
  7. Percy (1:41:08) Stealth Check
  8. Vax’ildan (1:54:36) Athletics Check with Luck
  9. Vex’ahlia (2:38:42) Initiative
  10. Vax’ildan (2:56:56) Dagger against Iotha
  11. Percy (3:02:29) Deadeye Sharpshooter Bad News against Pixie
  12. Vex’ahlia (3:05:00) LBoSS against Iotha
  13. Keyleth (3:12:54) Constitution Save
  14. Percy (3:20:05) Retort Deadeye Sharpshooter against Pixie

Natural 1s: 

  1. Scanlan (1:08:06) to determine whether to get the instruments with disadvantage
  2. Vex’ahlia (1:24:50) Persuasion Check
  3. Percy (1:53:08) Perception Check
  4. Vax’ildan (1:53:09) Perception Check
  5. Scanlan (1:54:25) Athletics Check with disadvantage (disregarded)
  6. Scanlan (1:54:25) Athletics Check with disadvantage
  7. Vax’ildan (1:54:36) Athletics Check with Luck (disregarded)
  8. Grog (2:01:06) Wisdom Save
  9. Keyleth (2:07:27) Perception Check
  10. Grog (2:30:40) Constitution Save

Thanks to @eponymous-rose for these additional statistics and explanation:

Here are some additional goofy little stats facts about the cumulative probabilities: I went ahead and repeated this sequence of events (rolling 157 d20s) 10,000 times, and in all those cases, a Natural 20 count of 14 only happened 138 times. This means that the likelihood of rolling 14 Nat 20s with a perfectly balanced die is at best only 1.4%. In contrast, rolling 8 Nat 20s under those circumstances is about ten times more likely, occurring 14.4% of the time. Pretty unusual!