All Rolls Statistics, Episode 100 Update

Episode 100 makes a fine checkpoint to see how many total d20 rolls and crits we’re at in the series. Let’s start with what each member contributes to the d20 total, individually:

All Rolls

There have been 8987 player d20 rolls, including guest players, since the start of the stream. Of these, the current members of Vox Machina have contributed 8477 rolls. Vax leads the way here, with 1711 total d20 rolls over 100 episodes (20.2%), likely because he is constantly stealthing and checking for traps, not to mention his signature “dagger dagger dagger.” Grog’s Reckless Attacks have pushed him into second at 1587 (18.7%), and Vex is third at 1504 (17.7%). Pike and Tary trail largely because of a much lower number of episode appearances, and Keyleth and Scanlan tend to roll fewer d20s simply because most of their attacks tend to be spells that rely on saving throws rather than an attack roll. In addition, none of these characters are typically taking point on any dungeon-crawling.

Since we know most everyone’s skill modifiers, we can also calculate their average natural roll over the course of the show. Here, Vax and Grog lead, at 12.18 and 12.19, though Vax comes with a caveat: Reliable Talent means that for any rolls he is proficient in, his minimum roll (before modifiers) is a 10, outside of a natural 1. Unless Liam announced what his natural roll was on these skills, the best we can do is assume 10 when calculating natural rolls, so Vax’s average is likely skewed slightly higher than it should be. By the same token, since Taliesin doesn’t always announce what he rolled when one of Percy’s guns misfires, Percy’s average should be skewed slightly higher, though to a lesser extent. The fact that all of Vox Machina is skewed slightly higher than the statistical average of 10.5 is also likely from the rolls we don’t hear- they don’t always announce the disregarded rolls for advantage, for instance. This may actually explain why Grog’s is so high- he gets advantage on most of his rolls now, and we don’t hear those lower rolls.

Criticals

Next, what role does each Vox Machina member play in the critical count? (Did you see what we did there? ...Yeah, great. Okay.)

Here’s where things get interesting. There have been a total of 463 natural 20s over 100 episodes. Vax has rolled the most of these (89), but, because of his high number of total rolls, his rate of natural 20s is roughly what you’d expect at 5.2%. Percy has the second most natural 20s (86), and has about 400 fewer rolls than Vax, so he leads VM in natural 20 rates at 6.47%. What’s even more interesting here is Pike. Since her return after the Nine Hells, she was slowly creeping up on Percy, and even passed him for a couple episodes before he retook the lead in episode 100. She currently sits at 26 natural 20s, which comes to 6.37% over her 408 total rolls. VM’s newest member, Taryon, has both the fewest natural 20s (5) and the lowest natural 20 rate (4%). Note: We’re not counting Doty’s rate here, because of his low number of rolls. Small numbers tend to skew statistics like these (though we’re pretty sure Wil Wheaton’s natural 1 rate of 20% would still be about 20% if Thorbir ever returned). Trinket and Tary are just high enough that we feel comfortable using their rates.

 

In general, Vox Machina’s natural 1 rates are much lower than what you’d expect from statistics (5%), and there are over 100 fewer natural 1s than natural 20s rolled over the course of 100 episodes at 333. Like in the average natural rolls, this is likely a result of the rolls we don’t hear (Percy’s misfires, disregarded due to advantage, simply saying “fail”). Taryon (8) again seems to have the worst luck, as he is the sole member of VM above 5%, at 6.4%. Pike (12) is again lucky, with the lowest natural 1 rate of 2.94%, though Scanlan (23) and Percy (42) aren’t far behind at 3% and 3.16%. It is possible that Percy’s natural 1 rate is slightly higher, since, as with the average natural rolls, we don’t always hear what was rolled on a misfire.

If you’re interested in how we got all of these numbers, you can check out our All Rolls list. If you’re just looking for crits, you can check out our Nat20 and Nat1 pages, and DM crits here. Unfortunately, we can’t do an article like this for Matt’s rolls—DM privilege means we just don’t have enough information!