D20 Roll Analysis (With Graphs!)

@dragonmustang01 has been a long time contributor to the All Rolls project, as well as many others. Well, after we finally published, she decided to add up how many rolls have actually been made by each character, as well as graph how many they rolled each episode. Thanks, Lauren, and enjoy her handiwork and commentary!

We have an excellent table of all rolls, but I find that graphs are sooo much easier to read and find patterns in than a huge list of numbers, so here we are (as of Episode 44):

Episodes 1-11:

Episodes 13-22:

Episodes 23-33:

Episodes 34-44:

A couple of things I noticed:

  • Combat-heavy episodes, like The Temple Showdown (Episode 11) and Reunions (Episode 33) obviously have more rolls than other episodes like Shopping and Shipping (Episode 14) and the Winter’s Crest Festival (Episode 36).
  • Vax rolls a lot. He usually has a higher number of rolls per episode than anyone else, and his total number of rolls is about 200 more than the next highest, Grog (Vax has 893, where Grog has 687). Suddenly his large number of natural 20s makes sense. He has a tendency to dominate combat-heavy episodes in particular, probably thanks to his boots of haste granting him three attacks per round, even before Percy got his third attack. Grog also has three attacks, but doesn’t tend to make as many skill checks as Vax outside of combat, granting the rogue the edge there.
  • Spellcasters, in general, roll less than the melee and ranged fighters. Many of their attacks do not require attack rolls, and they get fewer attacks per round. These combined more than make up for the increased arcana and nature checks that these characters perform.
  • Trinket tends to roll less than of all the PCs. Here I invoke critrolestats rule number 6 to forestall the inevitable Trinket usefulness discussion. Let it be known, however, that Matt and Laura often forget to roll for him for things like stealth, especially in early episodes, and he doesn’t usually get to roll for things like initiative (the exception here is in episode 27, where he was separated from Vex and went into combat with Percy against the invisible stalkers). (#TeamLeaveNoBearBehind)
  • Grog’s got two big peaks coinciding with his two fights against Kern (of course). I strongly suspect that this is where he gets the jump on Vex in total number of rolls, since Vex is a little more consistent through all episodes and he still just barely beats her out.
  • Percy started rolling a lot more in the Whitestone arc (Episodes 26-35), even beating out Vax for highest episode total a couple of times. This is also where he significantly increased his natural 20 count (he had 7 in episode 33 alone).
  • Speaking of natural 20s, now that we have a count of all rolls, we can calculate the frequency at which everyone crits. Vax is actually the closest to the expected frequency of 5% at 5.04%. Percy is the highest, thanks to the golden snitch, at 7.05% (excluding Lillith, who only rolled twice and got one natural 20, and Garthok, who is at 12.5% thanks to only rolling 8 times and getting a single crit). Trinket and Pike are also both fairly high. Despite Grog’s brief run of luck with Craven Edge and intelligence crits, he’s still behind the regular members of Vox Machina at only 3.49%. Thorbir brings up the rear at 2%, because of course he does.
  • Scanlan appears to be the luckiest PC when it comes to avoiding natural 1s, at 1.59%. Trinket, however, seems to fumble the most often of the regular members of Vox Machina, but still is lower than the expected frequency of 5% at 4.88% (though the margin of error here is fairly high; Trinket has significantly fewer rolls than the regular PCs). Zahra and Thorbir (of course) are the only other PCs with a higher fumble rate, at 5.77% and 20%, though there are caveats to Thorbir’s count, as has been discussed previously, and Zahra also has a relatively low number of rolls. Keyleth fumbles the most of the humanoid regular members of Vox Machina, at 4.41%.