There is no guarantee that Vox Machina and the Herd of Storms will fight Umbrasyl tonight, but considering Zanror’s eagerness, we figured we’d at least address the odds that they would have against the black dragon. On the bright side, one lone ancient dragon is at least a possible encounter, opposed to four all at once. Let’s take a look at some numbers.
Read MoreHow do you spell the names of the dragons in the Chroma Conclave?
Per Matt’s tweet: Raishan (green), Umbrasyl (black), Vorugal (white), and Thordak (red).
Why did an attack roll of 15 hit Scanlan in Episode 52?
Because he needed to attune to Mythcarver, he likely had to remove his +2 Ring of Protection or his Coldsnap Leather Armor.
Read MoreAnonymous Asked: Given the equipment everyone currently owns (and ignoring the ability to trade between characters, for simplicity's sake) and their respective abilities/feats, what is the maximum amount of damage each member of Vox Machina can deal in a single round to a single opponent, discounting potential weaknesses or special vulnerabilities?
Good question! So, assuming a single target only, here is the maximum damage each member of Vox Machina can do with their current list of items/abilities (as of the end of episode 52). Assume every damage die rolls its maximum value in all cases, and that the target has no special resistances/vulnerabilities that we need to keep track of. If you’re interested in seeing the full calculations for each of these, check out this sheet.
Note that the spellcasters often have additional status effects or area-of-effect capabilities with their spells, so their damage totals are correspondingly lower. Keyleth in particular can do far more damage in a single round if we allow for multiple targets and use her spells instead of beast shapes.
We should emphasize that the odds of any of these situations actually happening are almost incalculably low; for the non-spellcasters, it requires three or four natural 20s in a row in addition to maxing out the damage dice. The best we’ve seen in a single round is back-to-back natural 20s from an angry Vex in episode 25.
Read Morenarbeiterinmotion asked: When Vex received the, for lack of remembering the name of it, Pokenecklace, did they ever state that there could only be one creature in it at a time? And if so, wasn't Trinket technically in there for the whole Kevdak fight?
We’re informed that The Raven’s Slumber can only hold one creature at a time (Ep45, 0:22:53).
As for Trinket, Vex let him out inside one of the nearby buildings during Grog and Kevdak’s bout, before everyone else joined the battle (Ep51, 2:43:17). He came out of the house once the full ordeal had ended (Ep52, 3:01:05).
mycyber-world asked: Out of general curiosity, does anyone know how Vex got Simon (Vax's belt) back?
We’re informed that she “has her ways,” though Scanlan believes she “winked somebody” (Ep36, 2:31:17). The truth will forever remain a mystery.
Our largest fight analysis, for the longest encounter in the series!
Thunderlord Kevdak
Between the initial death match between Grog and Kevdak and the little information Matt told us about the former Thunderlord at the end of Episode 52, we know that Kevdak had 6 superiority dice (Fighter Battle Master), knew the Disarming, Sweeping, and Riposte attacks, used his Second Wind bonus action, and was NOT given an opportunity to unleash his Action Surge. On top of this, he also benefited as Totem of the Bear Barbarian, which granted him resistance to all damage, requiring double the damage of his HP to take him down. (The totem also gave him advantage on Strength checks all the time, but between his rage and the Enlarge spell granted by the Titanstone Knuckles, this understandably never came into play.)
A few Critters have asked Kevdak’s Challenge Rating. Here’s what we’ve estimated:
With all this in mind, using the formula in the DMG (p274), we calculate that Kevdak, by himself without the assistance of anyone else, had a Challenge Rating of 18. Note that the hit point total does not include the additional Heal spell or Kevdak’s use of Second Wind, which, by the end of the fight, required a total of 804 damage before resistance.
So, no, we do not believe that Grog had a chance in a straight fight. We think four Grogs could have taken him, though probably with one casualty.
That brings us to Episode 52’s side of the encounter.
Greenbeard
Also in the fight:
Figure 1: Surprise Round and Round Two Battle Map
When you’re trapped in combat with 22 hostiles, the most important role that can happen is containment. The surprise round, by design, offered a little bit of this. It is also difficult to take down that many enemies without using Area of Effect attacks, something to which most of the party did not have access. In this case, status spells and adequate distractions were the way to go, making the horde spread out their attacks.
The average damage of each attacker was about 10 points per attack. If all them always hit their mark, that’s an average of 20 points of damage per attacker per round. When there are 20 of them, that adds up REALLY fast. By the third round when Kevdak and Greenbeard were back in the battle, Vox Machina began to make their retreat as over half of the party had well less than half their total hit points. Even by the end of the battle, only a single archer fell from the mob’s side.
Figure 2: Round Three and Four Battle Map
And then there’s Greenbeard, the only other enemy with PC class levels. His Heal was a significant blow to the party’s progress, and his unseen Iron Monger strategy would have guaranteed that retreat was the only option (especially if the battle continued after Kevdak’s death). The encounter probably would have been somewhat easier had he been slain during the battle instead of afterward, but there also would have been no guarantee that Grog could have reached Kevdak for the kill.
Scanlan was the uncontested MVP of this battle. First, he made excellent use of the Mythcarver’s Cutting Words bonus: the forced disadvantage on Kevdak ensured he was out of the fight for two whole rounds when the gnome cast Hold Person. Having both Kevdak and Greenbeard held for as long as they were allowed Vox Machina to deal an impressive amount of damage without fear of retribution- including cutting off one of Kevdak’s arms and rendering the other useless. It also allowed Grog to take possession of the Bloodaxe, and left only a single spellcaster in play for two rounds.
Second, Scanlan’s inspired use of Counterspell to block the potential 5d8 healing spell ensured that Kevdak had to use one of his actions to use Second Wind, rather than attacking an extra time. Scanlan’s inspiration allowed Grog to take less damage against Vex’s Hail of Thorns, keeping him alive long enough to get into the Raven’s Slumber Crystal. Both of Scanlan’s uses of the Wand of Fireballs did a lot of damage to the combatants (though we won’t talk about the peasants that also died as a result…).
Finally, he was able to heal Pike for 7 points. This doesn’t sound like a lot, but in the third round, she had to make a choice whether to heal herself or use her spiritual weapon. Those extra seven points helped tip the scale for using the weapon, making Kevdak that much more vulnerable when Grog made his epic attack.
That’s not to say that the rest of the party’s contributions weren’t invaluable, either. Vex’s clutch rescue of Grog (as well as the choice to release him to finish the fight) ensured that the fight could actually be finished. Keyleth and Percy kept the archers distracted, keeping fire off of Grog. Vax and Percy followed behind Grog for total damage dealt to Kevdak, helping sever his arm so he couldn’t pick up and use the warhammer, only retreat. Even Pike’s incredible lack of luck drew attention away from Grog and the hostages.
We also have to give it to the dice, who, combined with Travis’s on-point roleplay this session, were the real storytellers. With a total of 16 Natural 20s (9 that were rolled by the DM) and 9 Natural 1s (6 rolled by the DM), the criticals were flying. It should also be pointed out that at least three of the player’s Natural 20s had an obvious impact on the direction of the story, which could have gone much further south otherwise. We’ve said it before, but we’ll say it again: The dice are sometimes the best characters.
With two enemies with class levels and 20 NPC combatants (15 melee combatants, 1 druid, and 4 archers), we estimate the challenge rating of the fight to be approximately 22. This also assumes that the party had to take out only one specific enemy while weathering the blows of everyone else until then. However, this might not have been true had Grog not dealt the killing blow, as Matt told us in a follow-up Periscope. Had they needed to take down every single individual, the CR rises to 30.
The difficulty was also extremely altered by the party by paralyzing Kevdak and Greenbeard and racking up a ton of attacks with advantage against them in the first half of the fight. The latter half showed a little more of what would have happened had Scanlan not taken them out of combat. The amount of health remaining among the PCs at the end was also a testament to that.
All in all, Vox Machina dealt 402 damage to Kevdak, 325 at final damage total. (Matt confirmed that Kevdak had a total of 310.) Grog dealt the most damage to him at 99 damage. (Keep in mind that all damages below account for Kevdak’s resistance. To see how much damage they needed to roll, double all the final totals.) Totals and timestamps, below the break!
And, to account for the amount he recovered:
sauldanse asked: just wondering, have yall ever done the math to figure out how long battles have lasted?
Yep. Check out our Running Times tables for the lengths of battles (both in and out of game), the lengths of episodes, and the attendance records.
Anonymous asked: How did vex roll a 27 for initiative if her dex mod is only 5 in episode 52
Percy gave Vex the Headband of Initiative, which grants her an additional +2 to her initiative rolls. Nat20 + 5 Dex + 2 from the headband gives her a 27 max initiative score.
Anonymous asked: Do we know the stats on Grog's new Blood axe?
We do! It’s a +2 great axe, which deals 1d12 + 2 + STR slashing damage. It deals an additional 1d6 necrotic damage against living creatures, and gives the wielder 10 HP back for each kill. (Undead and constructs would be immune to this. Grog couldn’t kill a door and get health back.)
Compare to the Firebrand Warhammer (+1), which deals 1d10 + 1 + STR bludgeoning damage + 1d6 fire damage. If Vox Machina comes across more undead or non-fire-immune constructs, the hammer would be better, but for most circumstances, the Bloodaxe is the superior weapon.
We finally had enough puns to make a separate post for them again! The last time we could do that was Episode 48.
Coming Soon to a theater near you: 127 Hours and a Gun: The Percy de Rolo Story
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